Dynamic Syndications have begun our inspections of potential candidates to wear the Dynamic silks in the seasons to come at the historical Inglis NEWMARKET sales complex at Randwick.
It’s a who’s who of elite thoroughbreds based upon type and pedigree that go under the hammer commencing Tuesday 9 April.
Over the Easter break, Dynamic were busy everyday studying the catalogue pages to identify those yearlings bred to be high quality and those with the flash pedigrees but were in fact, genetically unbalanced and unlikely to produce a Stakes Winning prospect.
As we have highlighted time after time, about 20% of the thoroughbred population produces 76% of the Stakes Winners. Therefore in reverse about 80% of the thoroughbred population produces just 24% of the Stakes Winners.
It’s not rocket science ! It’s simply risk reduction. We identify genetically which well bred horses fit into the 20% category and which horses do not.
Then we only select yearlings for purchase from this top 20%. We leave the other 80% to the others to buy.
There are 578 Stakes Races in Australia this season. Therefore 76% is 439 Stakes Races whilst 24% is 139 Stakes Races.
As a “Rule of Thumb” for the sake of this exercise, we assume that the foal crop for 2011 was 20,000.
Therefore 20% is 4,000 yearlings that produce 76% of the Stakes Race Wins = 439.
That’s a percentage of 10.975% of this group become a Stakes Winner.
Whilst 80% is 16,000 yearlings and they produce 24% of the Stakes Wins = 139.
That’s a percentage of 0.868% (less than 1%) of this group become a Stakes Winner.
Just ask yourself the same question: Where would you want to buy from ?
The 20% that produces 76% of Stakes Winners – or – The 80% that produces 24% of Stakes Winners ?
Whilst the pedigree page only entices us to look at the horse in the first instance and then, the individual must then stand up to the demands of the physical inspections and veterinary checks including x-rays, at least the 20% rule gives us greater confidence that we have reduced our risk factors significantly to improve our odds of racetrack success.
With Dynamic Syndications having 86% Runners: Winners and 96% Runners: Earners and with Dean Watt throughout his career having selected 10 individual Group 1 Winners that have won 13 Group 1 races, its rather obvious that his selection formula is working well.
We will be putting the proven formula back to work this week as we identify potential candidates for purchase at Inglis Easter. We have identified 112 qualified candidates from the 569 Lots catalogued (19.6%). These yearlings will undergo strict conformation evaluation by the Dynamic Team of Dean Watt, Veterinarian Dr. Tim Roberts, Bloodstock Agent Gary Mudgway and Adam Watt as we accept or reject each lot as a possible purchase.
The sale runs from next Tuesday 9 April to Thursday 11 April.
Stay tuned as we advise what takes place throughout the sale.
Hoofnote: An interesting dilemma in the light of the Patinack Farm announcement of the closure of their business on May 1 was the unexpected and unannounced withdrawal today of their draft of 24 yearlings from the yearling sale. An interesting move that must surely affect cash flow, as there are no real alternatives available to them. Stay tuned for further developments.