Proven Crosses are a HOT TICKET to success

28 Feb 13

With the Inglis Premier Sale due to start on Sunday afternoon, successful crosses are firmly on the mind of the whole Dynamic team. At every sale, we do our due diligence to identify the top lots that are genetically compatible when it comes to producing the best yearlings. In recent years, breeders have noticed that there is a large amount of emphasis placed on a successful cross in the marketplace and are starting to produce even more of the “nicks that click”.

Our TALE OF THE CAT – HOT TICKET colt, which was purchased from the Inglis Classic Sale in January of this year, is a perfect example of one such cross. DYNAMIC uses a highly regarded ratings system called “E-nicks” which has become an integral part of the decision-making process in the mating and purchasing of thoroughbreds. Most breeders recognise that an affinity or compatibility can exist between two thoroughbred sire lines, such that, when crossed, those lines yielded a greater proportion of superior runners than when either one of them are crossed with any other sire lines.

Our TALE OF THE CAT - HOT TICKET colt post sale

Not only was our TALE OF THE CAT – HOT TICKET colt sensationally put together but he comes from a family that has proven racetrack success. He is bred on the TALE OF THE CAT – HOLD YOUR PEACE cross and is rated an A 440+ putting him in the outstanding range. Horses that have been bred on this cross include the impressive US Gr2 winning colt, SOUL WARRIOR and the recent Magic Millions Classic Winner REAL SURREAL. If we take the family back one generation and look at all horses bred on the STORM BIRD – SPEAK JOHN cross we see even more stakes winners! Included on this list is the Gr1 winner and now successful sire, HENNY HUGHES and the multiple stakes winner around the world, DADDY LONG LEGS.

DYNAMIC purchased our colt in February with the victory of REAL SURREAL fresh on our minds. Prior to the Magic Millions win of REAL SURREAL, we had already identified that this cross was in the “A” range and was extremely happy with the win of REAL SURREAL. With horses like REAL SURREAL, HENNY HUGHES, SOUL WARRIOR and DADDY LONG LEGS all bred on this cross, DYNAMIC really wanted to secure this colt to syndicate to our clients. Fortunately for us, thanks to our due diligence work, we were able to secure this yearling bred on the same cross as one of the boom 2yos in Australia in REAL SURREAL. What is more exciting is that he was extremely reasonably priced and with syndication due to start on him shortly, the $4,925 price tag for 5% makes him a must have colt.

Magic Millions winner REAL SURREAL is bred on the same cross as our colt

Ongoing studies by researchers show that approximately 25% of the Thoroughbred population is the product of highly successful nicks ("A" rated nicks) while over 70% of stakes winners come from these "A" rated nicks! In summary, there are approximately 20,000 live foals born each year with 25% (5,000) “A” Rated whilst 75% (15,000) are rated below. There are 541 stakes races in Australia this racing season with statistics over the years telling us that approximately 70% (379) will be won from the 5,000 “A” rated foals born (7.6%)

For a practical person seeking a return on their investment, it makes no sense to ignore statistically unfavourable odds. Buying a superior racehorse is already a difficult enough proposition. At DYNAMIC, we endeavour to take the guess work away from our clients as we put in the hard work both prior to sale and at the saleyard. The Nick Rating enables us to identify and thus duplicate successful sire-line crosses, dramatically increasing the chances of success.

DYNAMIC have had plenty of success using this system in the past with SAVABEEL, POLAR SUCCESS, HE’S NO PIE EATER, ATOMIC FORCE, ECONSUL, DE BEERS, BRADBURY’S LUCK, TENANT’S TIARA and REWARD FOR EFFORT all superior racehorses who had superior pedigree ratings.

ATOMIC FORCE was also rated in the "A+" through the eNick ratings

As in the scholastic setting, the scales ranges from “F” (Fail) through to “A” with “A+” also “A++” and “A+++” as possible to be achieved in some select instances. The Variants (percentages) are the deviation from the norm that has been observed by that sire line cross in question. The “C” range between -15% to +15% is considered average, meaning that the sire-line cross has yielded results that are statistically no better and no worse than what would be expected with the entire population.

An "A" rated nick indicates that a far greater percentage of stakes winners have resulted from that cross than expected. An "F" rated nick indicates that the number of stakes winners resulting from a cross is at least 50% below expectations. This does not mean that there cannot be success or will not be success from such a mating in the future. It does mean that in all the experience of the last 20 + years of winners of stakes races, that type of mating has had a significant lack of success as measured by stakes winner production.

Dynamic has had plenty of success with the eNicks system

It must be stressed that a below “Average” rating does not guarantee or even predict failure. It means that to date the particular sire-line cross has fallen at least 16% short of what would be expected. Nicks can and do change over time. Consequently, an above Average Rating must be kept in proper perspective as there are other factors that must be considered when selecting a horse for purchase. Specifically, conformation evaluation is critical. A thoroughbred may have a brilliant pedigree on paper that rates as either Excellent, Superior, Superb or Outstanding on our Ratings Score however if the skeletal structure and/or the overall constitution of the individual is lacking then the horse is rejected as a candidate for purchase.

Fortunately with our TALE OF THE CAT – HOT TICKET colt, he has an excellent conformation and finds himself rated firmly in the “A” range. DARREN SMITH will train this cracking colt and we are hopeful that he will have all the success that this cross has already had and more. More information will come to hand in the coming weeks so make sure you are constantly checking the DYNAMIC website. To enquire about any other horses that we are currently syndicating, contact the office on (02) 9587 1511.