To quote Mark Twain there are three types of lies: “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics”
They certainly can reveal shed new light on common misconceptions.
With the false hype regularly created in the media circles about certain trainers and their horses, it’s interesting when you cut through the fluff and bubble, what the real facts are about the success (perceived or otherwise) of various stables.
We have recently read about trainers breaking through certain milestones, etc.
However it’s fascinating data when you have the opportunity to analyse the facts closely.
There is nothing more definitive, universally disliked by those under its comparison and what is, the nemesis of all licensed trainers, the statistics when you compare them equally by STRIKE RATE.
Training the most winners is NOT the determination of who is the best trainer.
That data is always skewed by number of horses in work, have they been in pre-training?
How long have they been in pre-training before entering the stables?
Are the stables full of Ferrari’s or clapped out Commodore’s?
Which stable has the best jockeys under contracted retainer? etc., etc., etc.
However the MOST IMPORTANT detector of fluff and bubble is STRIKE RATE.
We are an industry based upon Winning, then Placing.
We are an industry about consistency and about financial return for investors –
the owners.
Therefore, it’s timely to have a snapshot of how the 2015-16 racing season is panning out for the TOP 10 Trainers in Sydney as they are published by “Number of Winners” on industry websites.
As at the close of business on Tuesday 10th May 2016, do you know who are the TOP 2 TRAINERS in SYDNEY are on Metropolitan Winners by STRIKE RATE?
(Number of Winners divided by Number of Runners expressed as a percentage).
Answer is:
NUMBER 1 = GAI WATERHOUSE 43.5 Wins / 279 Runs = 15.59% (4th on Total Winners)
NUMBER 2 = JAMES CUMMINGS 25 Wins / 165 Runs = 15.15% (7th on Total Winners)
Both these trainers are involved with
Dynamic Syndications and trusted to bring the best out in our horses. Both are vital team members of the Dynamic Syndications Team.
* Dynamic Syndications are the PRIMARY SYNDICATOR for GAI WATERHOUSE RACING.
* Also we are just about to launch our latest syndication with JAMES CUMMINGS.
In Fact, only 2 other Sydney Trainers have a Strike Rate above 15% - Snowden and O’Shea.
Whilst Chris Waller sits on top of the table by number of Winners with 133, it’s important to put things in perspective, the stable has had a massive 936 Runners.
To put this data into comparison:
Chris Waller has started
2.19 times more runners (54.4%) than his closest peer John O’Shea, who has started
427 runners in Sydney Metro Area for 64.5 Winners.
Third is Snowden who has started
350 Metro Runners in Sydney for 53 Wins. Waller has trained
2.67 times more runners (62.6%) than Snowden.
Fourth is Waterhouse who has started
279 Metro Runners in Sydney for 43.5 Wins. Waller has trained
3.36 times (70.2%) more runners than Waterhouse.
In Fact, with
936 Sydney runners this season, the combined total of the next 3 large stables (O’Shea, Snowden, Waterhouse) is
1056 Runners = only
120 more runners than Waller but they’ve trained
28 more winners.
Between them, they have trained
161 Winners /
1056 Runners (15.25%) or 1 Winner per
6.56 Runners.
Whilst Waller with
133 Winners /
936 Runners (14.21%) or 1 Winner per
7.04 Runners.
The Stable on the move and the Stable of the Future is certainly JAMES CUMMINGS.
His stable has had 25 Metro Wins from 165 Runners (15.15%) or 1 Win per 6.6 Runners.
Since going out on his own after the passing of Bart on 30 August 2015, James stables are going terrific. In this time, he has trained 8 Stakes Wins including
Group 1 success with PRIZED ICON, Group 2 success with GOOD STANDING, Group 3 success with SULTRY FEELING (2 wins), YATTARNA, TEMPT ME NOT and Listed Race success with PRIZED ICON and RULING DYNASTY.